Mandela Barnes Is Democratic Front-Runner In Governor’s Race
The field is large. The key issue may be electability.
Former Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is seen at the State Capitol in Madison, Wis., on Jan. 22, 2019. (Emily Hamer / Wisconsin Watch)
Mandela Barnes shouldn’t expect the Democratic primary field to clear for him in the Wisconsin governor’s race like it did when he ran for Senate, close watchers of the election say.
One reason why? Some anxious Democrats are worried about Barnes’ loss in the Senate race in 2022.
“There might not be any issue that divides Democrats more” than Barnes’ electability, said Barry Burden, who runs the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin–Madison.
The crowded primary field includes Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez, state Sen. Kelda Roys, state Rep. Francesca Hong, former Wisconsin Economic Development Corp. CEO Missy Hughes and former state Rep. Brett Hulsey. Earlier this month, Evers’ former aide, Joel Brennan, jumped into the race too.
Whoever wins is likely to face U.S. Rep. Tom Tiffany, the leading Republican candidate, who has routinely targeted Barnes on social media. Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann is also running.
Wisconsin Congressman Tom Tiffany addresses the audience in his speech during the Republican Party of Wisconsin convention on May 17, 2025, at the Central Wisconsin Convention & Expo Center in Rothschild, Wis. (Joe Timmerman / Wisconsin Watch)
Barnes has the highest name recognition among the primary candidates and is widely considered to be the front-runner. An October poll released prior to Barnes’ campaign announcement placed him at 16% support in the primary, the highest of any candidate included in the survey.
“Mandela Barnes is the most known and by far the most popular candidate,” said Molly Murphy, a pollster for Barnes’ campaign, adding that he has a “decisive lead over everyone else in the field.”
“I don’t think anybody, including Mandela, is that prohibitive a favorite the way that Evers was at the top of the field and Mandela was at the top of the field in those two primaries over the last eight years,” said Sachin Chheda, a Milwaukee-based Democratic strategist who is not affiliated with any candidate. It’s a “wide open field.”
Barnes ran away with the primary in 2022, winning nearly 78% of the vote; his most competitive challenger, Milwaukee Bucks Executive Alex Lasry, dropped out of the race ahead of the primary and endorsed him. Barnes’ general election campaign, however, was inundated with attacks from the right that proved successful.
Barnes’ campaign staff blamed the 2022 results in part on insufficient support from national Democrats to match outside spending by Republicans on attack ads — though some, like Burden, question whether money would have “made a difference.”
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee donated $51,200 to his campaign in 2022 — the same amount they gave to nine other Senate candidates, per Open Secrets.
The national campaign arm for Democratic governors has pledged to stay out of the primary contest.
The Democratic Governors Association is “excited about this strong bench of candidates and look forward to helping elect whoever Wisconsinites nominate to be their next governor,” said spokesperson Olivia Davis.
Barnes does have connections with major figures in the national party, though. Since 2023, Barnes has led a voting rights organization, Power to the Polls, and a renewable energy nonprofit. Earlier this month he was endorsed by U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff of California.
Murphy, the president of Impact Research, said that governor’s races are “a different ecosystem” from Senate campaigns. “No two cycles are the same; 2022 was very much a referendum on national leadership,” she said.
For now, name recognition and previous fundraising experience make Barnes the front-runner, said Joe Zepecki, a Democratic strategist based in Wisconsin. Still, Zepecki said, there are more incentives for the other candidates to stay in the race this time.
“I don’t think anybody anticipates a rerun of ’22 where other Democrats just kind of get out of the way a couple of weeks before the primary,” he said.
Another reason he expects the field to stay mostly intact? Because Democrats have a good shot at securing a trifecta in Wisconsin in 2026, and the chance to be governor while the party holds control is more appealing than being one of 100 senators.
There’s also the hand-wringing over electability.
“My reaction and the reaction of some other people I know who were quite involved in politics was, ‘Oh man, I hope he decides not to (run),’” said Mary Arnold, co-chair of the Columbia County Democrats, which covers the communities between Madison and Wisconsin Dells. “He’s going to overshadow the field, and I don’t know if that’s going to be a good thing.”
“Then there’s real people. …The further I go out from my circle of political friends, the more enthusiasm for Barnes I hear,” he said.
This story was produced and originally published by Wisconsin Watch and NOTUS, a publication from the nonprofit, nonpartisan Allbritton Journalism Institute.
This article first appeared on Wisconsin Watch and is republished here under a Creative Commons Attribution-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
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The “electability” argument is such bullshit. People will turn out for who they think will do them good as governor. I like Mandela but he’s got the stink of losing to Ron Johnson and whoever ran his campaign was so bad at messaging that “My mother was a teacher and my father worked third shift” literally became a meme among voters.
Fran Hong should be the choice.
David Crowley has name recognition. I’ve heard of him. . . .
So the story was produced by NOTUS, a publication of the “Allbritton Journalism Institute”. (AJI) is a nonprofit organization backed by a grant from Robert Allbritton, the founding publisher of Politico. Robert Allbritton was previously the final CEO of Riggs National Corporation, the parent of Riggs Bank, from 2001 to 2005, when PNC Bank acquired the bank amidst the money laundering scandal that involved the Allbritton family with the former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. Go Team Go. Ever wonder why both our political system and media suck so bad right now? Look no further. They would rather brainstorm on how to win elections by not actually standing for anything.
Fran Hong has a vision to make Wisconsin affordable and livable.
He lost a statewide election against a cooky conspiracy theorist. What would be different this time around?
I disagree that the “electability” factor is irrelevant. Whule name recognition is important, no Milwaukee democrat is going to win in Wisconsin. Time for a lnumber of these candidates to get a day job outside of politics.
Barnes lost to Ron Jon by 1% point. He achieved that in an election in which Ron Jon’s entire campaign was based on the color of Barnes skin. Ron Jon’s campaign was a shameful display of dog whistle politics.
I would hope Wisconsin voters learned their lesson, that giving into fear mongering and racism results in elected officials who do not care about the needs and interests of Wisconsin. Tiffany’s attacks on Barnes only demonstrates his racism and disinterest in serving all Wisconsinites.
Wisconsin voters, do not give into the racist fearmongering message from the current radical reactionary Republican Party. RRRs are only interested in power and imposing Project 2025 on hard working Wisconsin families.
I agree with gwarzyn. I have posted it before. I’ll do so again. I am originally from central Wisconsin and if the Dems want to retain the State Mansion, they should NOT nominate any big city politician for governor, especially Crowley or Barnes. Beyond Portage County it is hard to find someone who will admit being a Democrat. Critical thinkers are even harder to find. I am not impressed with either Crowley or Barnes. I voted for Barnes last round because I found him the lesser evil. I hope I will not be put in that situation again. Fran Hong or Missy Hughes are my choices, but given the central/northern part of the State’s mindset, the Dem nominee should be a white male if hey want to retain the State Mansion.
I agree with jmpehoski. 95% of the State is inhabited by majorities of unenlightened individuals who are terrified of getting shot if they even drive through Milwaukee.
It’s a disgusting truth. I have more than a few white relatives who are otherwise likely Dem voters but won’t vote for the black guy.
How important is this race?
The story asserts that Barnes is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination for governor, but contains no concrete facts to bolster the assertion. Yes, one poll showed him having more name recognition than the other candidates, but the notion that name recognition is an unmitigated good reflects lazy thinking. The reality is that name recognition can cut both ways, especially with someone like Mandela Barnes.
Most people who will vote in the Democratic primary in August are progressives who pay closer attention to state politics than do others. They are well aware that Barnes ran such a feeble campaign against Ron Johnson that the Democrats lost a very winnable U.S. Senate seat in 2022, a year when other Democrats won the governorship and other statewide elections.
So yes, Democratic primary voters know who Barnes is — and most want no more of him, as Milwaukee media have reported in various ways. See https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2025/11/03/mandela-barnes-faces-pushback-as-he-moves-toward-campaign-for-governor/86932605007/. See also this editorial from in the Black-owned Milwaukee Courier: https://milwaukeecourieronline.com/index.php/2025/10/25/we-cant-afford-to-lose-in-2026-and-we-cant-risk-another-mandela-barnes-loss/.
As for Barnes’ supposed fundraising prowess, the story provides no evidence of it. A little digging would have alerted the reporters to the fact that AFSCME Local 32, a powerful union organization that endorsed Barnes in 2022, is supporting Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez for the Democratic nomination for governor this year, as the Journal Sentinel reported Nov. 19: https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2025/11/19/democrat-sara-rodriguez-gains-key-union-endorsement-in-governors-race/87353549007/.
Urban Milwaukee readers deserve better journalism than this thinly reported story.
JMPEHOSKI: What does not impress you with David Crowley? Besides his experience in the State Legislature, he has been focused, politically astute, advocate for older adults, politically left. He’s approachable, kind, thoughtful. And he’s had to grapple with Milwaukee County Transit, County Parks, Mental Health Services and the County Sheriff & House of Corrections (Community Reintegration Center, CRC). Aside from his birthright in the City of Milwaukee– which no one up-state seems to like, what do you see that seems invisible to his supporters?
Using the Way-Back Machine, I still do not know what qualified Mr. Barnes in 2012. And I say that, because I worked 3rd shift, was a Union Worker, my mother was a cashier, and I graduated from college completely before I told anyone that I really did. I guess that makes me qualified to be the next Lt. Governor too then?
mpbehar: I am dependent on public transit due to health issues. I am unimpressed with his inability to do anything for those dependent on public transit, except deal with decreasing service, increasing fare evasion, as well as increasing fares. I wouldn’t mind the increasing fares if there was an effective plan in place to abolish fare evasion, which seems to be increasing IMO. Why can’t he use his position to put pressure on the IMO useless County Board to force the current, totally inept MCTS management to either shape up immediately or ship out immediately? MCTS was never perfect, but until the current management team came on board, there were never this many issues or attempting to hide a large deficit. No, until he has a bigger role in attempting to rectify the mess that is MCTS, I will remained unimpressed with him. That is my #1 pet issue.
I don’t deny he has done good for the County. However, for reasons stated in a previous post, I do not support him for the Dem nominee for governor. IMO his place is here for now, continuing to build on the good he has already done. This County needs all the help it can get, especially in managing the entitled culture.
JMPEHOSKI: Thanks. Having lived in the DMV (District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia) Metro area long ago, I became spoiled with a modern and fairly efficient underground subway system (The Metro) with warm and dry stations regardless of the weather. When I lived in New Orleans, I thankfully lived close to the St. Charles/Carrolton streetcar line and used it whenever I could. Prior to that time, I was a user of Milwaukee County Transit in high school days and earlier, but became frustrated with it’s unreliability and relied on a bicycle til my 40s; then “graduated” to a motor vehicle. I confess to not being a fan of public transit here, but really love efficient mass transit elsewhere! I would love to better understand the ongoing and historical problems with MCTS, and wonder if it was doomed because of opposition to the once proposed regional mutli-county mass transit proposal in favor of the auto and freeway interests. .