Can Democrats Defeat Reps Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden?

A raucous July town hall in southeastern Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District served as a showcase for President Donald Trump’s ability to energize his political opponents, and as a reminder of the stakes of next year’s midterms.

It was organized by U.S. Rep. Bryan Steil, a Republican from Janesville who was first elected in 2018 to fill the seat previously held by Paul Ryan, the former House speaker and GOP vice presidential candidate. Steil, who fits the Ryan mold, easily won his previous elections, defeating most of his Democratic opponents by double-digit margins.

Still, his 2026 campaign has already taken on a different feel. Along with U.S. Rep. Derrick Van Orden, a Republican from Prairie du Chien, Steil represents one of roughly two dozen congressional seats around the country that could go either way in the next election. Collectively, they’ll decide whether Democrats regain some power in Washington or if President Donald Trump’s agenda continues unabated.

Democratic voters are well aware of the stakes. Republicans across the country, including Van Orden, stopped doing in-person town halls after many were shouted down in the early days of Trump’s second term.

Steil went ahead anyway with his forum at the Elkhorn High School auditorium, but to similar results. He didn’t even get a word out before the audience, composed overwhelmingly of Democrats, erupted in boos. The crowd repeatedly shouted him down whenever he mentioned Trump’s aggressive approach to deportations, cuts to federal research grants and international trade.

If history is any guide, who wins key races in the 2026 election will depend a lot on how people feel about the president. The boos in this year’s town halls are reminiscent of another midterm cycle 15 years ago, when Democrats paid a price for supporting President Barack Obama’s agenda.

But even as Trump’s public approval has slipped, Wisconsin’s GOP congressmen have stood by the president. Steil told the crowd in Elkhorn that Trump was delivering on issues that were important to Americans, especially immigration.

“I think we need to secure the U.S.-Mexico border,” Steil said, between boos. “You may not. It’s fine that we disagree.”

Support for Trump comes as public support has declined

On the day he was sworn into office for a second time, a running average of polls found Trump’s approval rating well above 50 percent. It’s been sliding ever since and is currently in the low 40s.

An August survey by the Pew Research Center showed Trump’s job approval had dropped to just 38 percent, with support among conservatives who voted for him falling by 10 percentage points since February.

The decline in support for Trump has coincided with a drop in support for his policies. Pew found a majority of voters had unfavorable views of the president’s tariffs as well as his “big beautiful bill,” Trump’s signature law that cuts taxes, boosts immigration enforcement and cuts funding for safety net programs like Medicaid.

Representatives from targeted districts, like Steil and Van Orden, may win or lose their elections based on how the public feels about those issues a little more than a year from now. But at least at this moment, neither of them has strayed from the president’s agenda.

At his town hall, Steil was asked why Trump has been allowed to set wide-ranging tariffs without congressional approval. Steil responded by saying Trump is trying to get other countries to treat America fairly and said an ongoing court case would decide whether the president needs Congress’ blessing.

Trump has pursued much of his agenda without Congress, but his signature budget law is the exception. Nearly every Republican voted for it, including Steil and Van Orden.

Neither lawmaker has shied away from the votes, especially Van Orden. While he’s avoided in-person town halls, he’s been among the president’s most outspoken supporters, especially on social media.

“We will be passing @realDonaldTrump Big Beautiful Bill and anyone that is (in) the way needs to find another Party,” Van Orden wrote on X in late May.

“I am very proud to stand with @realDonaldTrump and the One Big Beautiful Bill,” he wrote in another post in June. “We are delivering on the mandate given by the American people. Cope.”

While Republicans have emphasized Trump’s tax cuts, Democrats have honed in on the law’s cuts to safety-net programs like Medicaid.

During debate on the plan, Van Orden vocally defended the changes, at one point yelling at an economist during a public hearing for suggesting Republicans were cutting food assistance. But the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has said the law will cut the number of people who receive benefits nationally by 2.4 million, largely because new work requirements for able-bodied adults will cause them to leave the program.

There are other areas of the law where Van Orden has sought to stake out middle ground. Part of the federal budget law passed by Republicans shut the door to states generating more federal Medicaid funding through a “hospital assessment” — a tax on hospitals that’s offset by the added government funding. In Wisconsin, the issue became a major part of state budget negotiations when Republicans and Democrats worked around the clock to increase the state’s hospital assessment before the federal budget bill became law.

As state lawmakers raced to the finish line, Van Orden sent a letter to Democratic Gov. Tony Evers urging him to sign the state budget before federal lawmakers passed Trump’s bill.

“Delaying the state budget enactment beyond July 3rd risks losing vital opportunities for the state’s health care system and the Wisconsinites who rely on it,” Van Orden wrote.

Evers signed the budget at around 1:30 a.m. July 3 but said Van Orden’s letter had nothing to do with it. By beating Congress to the punch, the state change is expected to bring an additional $1.2 billion in federal Medicaid matching funds to Wisconsin hospitals.

Afterward, Van Orden claimed on social media that Republicans “just saved BadgerCare,” which is Wisconsin’s version of Medicaid. Evers’ administration has since warned the law could cause nearly 44,000 residents to lose food assistance and 63,000 to lose Medicaid.

Cook Political Report House Editor Erin Covey told WPR that Van Orden’s comments show he and other Republicans are aware the Medicaid cuts are the least popular part of the signature law.“I think it’s an acknowledgement that health care cuts are unpopular and a majority of Americans want health care to be better funded and support expanding Medicaid funding,” Covey said.

Steil takes low-key approach while Van Orden embraces controversy

While their voting records are nearly identical in full support of Trump, the way Van Orden and Steil carry themselves in public is markedly different.

Reid Ribble, a former Republican congressman who represented Wisconsin’s 8th Congressional District in northeastern Wisconsin from 2011 to 2017, said Steil’s approach is very similar to that of Paul Ryan, who represented the 1st District for two decades. Steil was a Ryan aide before running for Congress.“He even looks a little bit like Paul — some people would say a little younger version,” Ribble said with a laugh.

Ribble described Steil as the definition of the “‘Wisconsin nice’ attitude.”

“Steil is a really likable guy, and he’s not bombastic at all,” Ribble said. “So it’s not like that centrist Democrat voter is going to vote against him just because they hate the guy because of his rhetoric or demeaning attitude.”

Covey describes Steil as “a relatively low-key member of Congress” who has gained power during his six-year tenure by chairing the House Administration Committee and the House Subcommittee on Financial Affairs, which recently saw major cryptocurrency legislation known as the Clarity Act signed into law.

“I think he has been able to use that low profile to his advantage politically, because he hasn’t made headlines for saying controversial things in the same way that someone like Van Orden clearly has,” Covey said.

Covey said Van Orden has emerged as “one of the most polarizing members of the House” with controversial online comments.

Van Orden is a prolific commenter on the social media site X, which is owned by billionaire Elon Musk. He posted more than 580 times on the platform in July alone. His recent posts have included insults lobbed at Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz after two Democratic state lawmakers were assassinated there in June, and multiple calls for Trump’s political enemies to be put in prison.

Van Orden has had a long-running online feud with Wisconsin U.S. Rep. Mark Pocan, a Democrat from the Town of Vermont. In one recent post, Van Orden claimed a photo of a naked man wearing a ski mask and holding a sex toy was Pocan.

The online feud spilled onto the streets outside the U.S. Capitol in July. While Pocan and Wisconsin Republican U.S. Rep. Tony Wied were being interviewed by a reporter, Van Orden drove by and revved his motorcycle before walking over to trade insults with Pocan.

While Democrats are trying to use Van Orden’s controversial comments against him, Ribble said his political brand “works really well for him” because of his experience as a Navy Seal and the “warrior” spirit that comes with it.

“I think Derrick’s biggest risk is if he were to alienate the more moderate, centrist, traditional Reaganite that is in the district — because they’re still there,” Ribble said. “And those voters can be taken by someone who is not as bombastic and just wants to get things done.”

Van Orden was the only Republican in Wisconsin’s congressional delegation to underperform the president in November.

Kyle Kondik, the editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, said Van Orden’s district has been trending redder since Trump came on the scene. But he said it’s possible those same voters won’t show up for downballot Republicans in the same way next year.

“You combine that with some of Van Orden’s controversies, and you could see why he might be having a little bit of trouble locking down the district, even though he’s been able to win it for a couple of terms here,” Kondik said.

The 1st and 3rd Districts are competitive on paper. But Steil appears safer than Van Orden.

On paper, Covey, of the the Cook Political Report, said Democrats have a better shot at flipping Steil’s seat than they do Van Orden’s. That’s because Trump only carried Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District with around 51 percent of the vote in November, compared to 53 percent in the 3rd District.

But in practice, Steil appears to be safer than Van Orden, maybe even significantly. That’s largely due to his record of lopsided wins.

Steil has run ahead of Trump in the last two presidential elections, and no Democrat has come close to beating him. In 2024, Steil trounced Democrat Peter Barca, who had previously represented the area in Congress and the state Legislature, by 19 percentage points.

While national Democrats claim both Van Orden and Steil among their top targets in 2026, there are signs the party is clearly more focused on Van Orden.Van Orden’s main Democratic challenger, Rebecca Cooke of Eau Claire, is making her second attempt at flipping the 3rd District after coming within three percentage points last November. Campaign finance reports show she raised $1.95 million during the first six months of 2025. On the Republican side, Van Orden was the top fundraiser among his House colleagues, bringing in around $2.3 million.

Even at this early state, national surrogates have taken notice of the race. Last month, Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders visited the district to campaign for Cooke while Vice President JD Vance came to La Crosse to promote Trump’s agenda and praise Van Orden.

There are three Democrats running against Steil, including ironworker Randy Bryce of Racine who is known as “Iron Stache.” It’s Bryce’s second attempt after losing to Steil by around 12 percentage points in 2018. But while Steil reported raising around $1.8 million between Jan. 1 and June 30, Bryce only brought in around $26,000.

“At the risk of sounding dismissive, if that’s the best they can do against Bryan Steil, they’re going to have a problem coming right out the gate,” said Republican Party of Wisconsin Chair Brian Schimming.When asked about Van Orden’s controversial style, Schimming noted that Trump — who has made a political living out of provocative comments — is still popular in the district.“Derrick Van Orden is a very direct guy,” Schimming said. “He’s very willing to speak his mind, but that’s matched him well in that district.”

Ron Kind, a Democrat who spent 26 years representing the 3rd District, sees things differently. In an interview with WPR, he said Van Orden’s sometimes-inflammatory brand is a liability  because it can turn off independent voters.

“The constant partisan attack only gets you so far, and it leaves you very vulnerable to a lot of independent minded voters who may not like that style,” said Kind, who narrowly defeated Van Orden in 2020.But Kind said the biggest vulnerability for both Van Orden and Steil leading up to next year’s election is their unfailing support of Trump’s agenda, along with the rest of Republicans in Congress.

“They’re just jamming things through … and therefore they own it,” Kind said. “And they’re going to have to own that going into the crucial midterms.”

Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden are Wisconsin’s top Democratic targets. They haven’t strayed from Trump. was originally published by Wisconsin Public Radio.