What Makes State a Unique Primary

Voting Line

National attention turns to Wisconsin this week because the Badger State’s presidential primary on April 5^th is the only one between now and April 9 (the Wyoming caucus).  For those who are trying to understand some of the demographic and economic context for the April 5^th election, we’ve pulled together a variety of facts about Wisconsin and how it compares to other states.

Demographics

• Population size and voting
  • Wisconsin’s population – 5.77 million in 2015 – was 20^th largest last year.
  • Voter turnout on April 5 is expected to be about 40% of the state’s 4.4 million eligible voters (compared to just 15.7 % in Iowa[i]), thanks in part to the fact that it’s also the general election date for a Wisconsin Supreme Court seat and for local elected officials – with 5,891 candidates competing for 3,888 offices across the state.
• Racial diversity
  • Wisconsin is a very white state – 82.2% in 2014 (excluding Hispanics and Latinos), compared to 62.1% nationally.[ii]
  • Only about 6.6% of Wisconsinites are Black, which is one half the national average in 2014 of 13.2%.[iii]
  • Just 6.5% of Wisconsinites are Hispanic or Latino, compared to 17.4% for all states in 2014.[iv]
  • Wisconsin is home to 11 federally recognized American Indian tribes and bands, and in 2014 there were about 50,700 American Indians in Wisconsin (0.9% of the state population, which was 18^th nationally).[v]
  • The racial and ethnic composition is significantly different among younger Wisconsinites. For example, Hispanics comprised 11.3% of Wisconsin children in 2014, compared to only 5.0% of Wisconsin adults.
• Racial and ethnic disparities
  • Wisconsin leads the nation in having the largest disparities between White children and African American children. For example, a composite score based on 12 indicators of child well-being found that Wisconsin ranked last among Black children, yet 10^th best for White children.[vi]
  • Wisconsin had the 2^nd highest residential housing segregation for Blacks and Whites in 2010, second only to Montana.[vii]
• Immigrants
  • Only 4.7% of Wisconsinites are foreign-born, versus 13.1% nationally.[viii]
  • Although immigrants are a relatively small part of the Wisconsin population, their numbers have been growing rapidly, and it is estimated more than 40% of hired workers on dairy farms are immigrants.[ix]
  • Wisconsin’s Hmong population (a little over 47,000 in 2010), is the third largest in the U.S., and in terms of percentage of the state population (0.8%) is second nationally, behind only Minnesota.
• Elderly population
  • 15.2% of Wisconsinites were 65 or older (compared to 14.5% nationally),[x] which ranked 22^nd.[xi]
• Education
  • Wisconsin is well above average in its high school graduation rate; 90.8% of Wisconsin adults age 25 or older have at least a high school degree or GED, vs. 86.3% nationally.[xii]
  • On the other hand, only 27.4% of Wisconsinites have a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared to 29.3% nationally.[xiii]
• Poverty
  • The number of Wisconsin children living in poverty has grown substantially (an increase of 48,000 from 2007 to 2014[xiv]), but the percentage in poverty in Wisconsin, 18.4%, was still significantly below the national average of 21.7% in 2014.

Economy

• Job growth
  • Wisconsin was 36^th in job growth over the past 12 months, according to the latest Quarterly Census on Employment and Wages (QCEW), with a growth rate that was only about half the national average (a 1.2% increase in private sector jobs in Wisconsin vs. 2.2% nationally),[xv] and the QCEW data also show that Wisconsin has trailed all the other states in the upper Midwest from September 2011 through September 2015.
• Income levels and income inequality
  • Per capita income of workers is a little less than the national average in Wisconsin – 2.3% below the national average from 2010 through 2014.
  • On the other hand, median family income was 1.9% above average in Wisconsin in 2014, according to the Census Bureau ($67,187 in Wisconsin vs. $65,910 nationally).[xvi]
  • Wisconsin has historically had significantly less income inequality than other states, but has slowly been catching up. Between 1979 and 2012, the average income of the top 1% in Wisconsin grew by 149%, while the average income of the remaining 99% grew by only 1%.[xvii]
• Reliance on manufacturing
  • Wisconsin ranks 2^nd highest in the percentage of the workforce in manufacturing – slightly behind Indiana, but well above the other 48 states. (Manufacturing jobs account for 16.2% of non-farm jobs in WI in Jan. 2016, compared to 8.6% nationally.)
  • Wisconsin’s lead in manufacturing has been slipping a little. Among the 10 states with the highest percentage of jobs in manufacturing, Wisconsin was 6^th in the percentage growth of manufacturing jobs from December 2010 through January 2016.[xviii]
• Unemployment rate
  • Wisconsin’s unemployment rate in January 2016 was 4.6%, compared to 4.9% nationally.
  • The Wisconsin unemployment rate has long been well below the national rate, but this chart from the state’s Job Center shows the difference has been shrinking.
• Labor force participation rate
  • Wisconsin has long had a high proportion of adults in the workforce, and ranked 7^th highest in 2014 (with 78.8% of people 16-64 in the workforce, compared to 73.6% nationally).

  [i] United States Election Project, 2016 Presidential Nomination Contest Turnout Rates

  [ii] This is the white alone, non-Hispanic and non-Latino rate in 2014, from the U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts.

  [iii] From the American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year average for 2010-2014

  [iv] From the American Community Survey (ACS) for 2014.

  [v] These figures are for those who identify as American Indian (or Alaska native) alone; it excludes those of two or more races. The figures come from American Community Survey table R0203 for 2014.

  [vi] Race for Results, Wisconsin Council on Children and Families, Fall 2014.

  [vii] Analysis of 2010 Census data by the Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality, 2015 State of the States   http://inequality.stanford.edu/sites/default/files/SOTU_2015.pdf

  [viii] From the U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts, based on 2010-14 averages.

  [ix] http://www.jsonline.com/business/wisconsin-dairy-farmers-worry-about-impact-of-a-day-without-latinos-rally-b99671884z1-369128961.html

  [x] From the U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts, based on2014 data.

  [xi] http://www.worldatlas.com/articles/the-us-states-with-the-oldest-population.html

  [xii] From the U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts, based on 2010-14 averages.

  [xiii] Ibid

  [xiv] http://www.wccf.org/number-of-child-in-poverty-in-wisconsin-stays-high/

  [xv] http://www.jsonline.com/business/wisconsins-pace-of-job-growth-continues-to-trail-behind-the-national-average-b99684291z1-371523701.html

  [xvi] American Community Survey 2014 table R1902

  [xvii] http://www.wisconsinbudgetproject.org/income-inequality-in-wisconsin-reaches-record-levels

  [xviii] From a March 2016 Wisconsin Budget Project analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data.